Nacional Upset Trips Moreirense’s Bid for Portugal’s Top Three

Moreirense travelled to Madeira dreaming of a place on the podium, yet returned to Minho empty-handed and suddenly looking over their shoulder. An efficient Nacional side shut the door on the visitors’ best chance this autumn to break into the top three, handing the surprise package of the season only its third defeat and injecting fresh drama into Portugal’s crowded European race.

A night that promised – and then slipped away

In front of a boisterous Choupana crowd, the game tilted decisively midway through the second half when Nacional capitalised on one of the few clean sights of goal either team fashioned. Moreirense, who had spent the opening 45 minutes poking and prodding without real menace, were caught square by a rapid counter that ended with the ball nestling beyond Kewin Silva. From that moment, Rui Borges’ men chased shadows; crosses were over-hit, long balls drifted harmlessly out of play and the normally watertight back four looked nervy every time the hosts broke.

Where the chess match was won

Borges laid out his familiar 3-4-3, hoping wing-backs Pedro Amador and Fabiano would pin Nacional deep. Instead, Tiago Margarido’s compact 5-3-2 blocked the flanks and lured Moreirense into the congested middle, where Luís Esteves and Gustavo Silva continually snapped at João Camacho’s heels. The visitors managed only 2 shots on target all evening, their second-lowest tally this term. Margarido later admitted the plan was borrowed from Farense’s blueprint in August, the only other side to keep Moreirense goalless on the road.

The table tightens at the top

The immediate consequence is obvious: Moreirense remain stuck on 19 points, still a whisker behind Braga and Vitória SC but now level with Nacional themselves. With Benfica and Porto already opening daylight, the remaining continental tickets look headed for a photo finish. Portugal’s improved UEFA ranking means fifth place is likely enough for a Conference League berth next season, yet Borges knows his squad missed a golden shortcut toward Europa League territory. In practical terms, the defeat trims their margin for error before a daunting run that includes away trips to Alvalade and Luz before Christmas.

Words from the dugout and the dressing room

Speaking in the mixed zone, an unusually subdued Borges admitted his side were “too frantic in the final third” and lamented the absence of suspended midfielder Gonçalo Franco. Captain André Luís reiterated that the target had never been the podium but conceded that “when you are that close, it hurts to let it slip”. Across the corridor, Margarido hailed an “almost perfect execution” of the game plan and cheekily reminded reporters that Nacional were written off as relegation favourites in August.

European dreams now on a knife-edge

Before kick-off, several betting houses had shortened Moreirense’s odds of finishing third to 4.00. By full-time those odds drifted to 7.50, a sign of how precarious the race has become. Statistical models consulted by RTP and O Jogo still give the side from Guimarães a one-in-six chance of snatching a Europa League slot, but only if they can average at least 1.8 points per match in the next ten rounds – a pace normally associated with the so-called “Big Three”. Nacional, meanwhile, have gone from outsiders to credible contenders, helped by a run of 13 points from a possible 15 since mid-September.

What happens next

Both clubs face quick turnarounds. Moreirense host Casa Pia on Saturday, a fixture that suddenly feels like a must-win before the international break resets the calendar. Nacional travel to Rio Ave chasing back-to-back victories for the first time since February 2024. With only 6 points separating third from ninth, every slip from here on will echo right through the standings – and Tuesday night’s result in Funchal may prove the moment the chase for Europe truly caught fire.