Mendes Banks on Late Surge to Lead Portugal’s First-Round Vote

The presidential race has suddenly become a cliff-hanger: Luís Marques Mendes insists he will "top the scoreboard" on 18 January, even though every major poll places him in the middle of the pack. For voters in Portugal, the clash between personal conviction and hard data is setting the tone for an unusually unpredictable election.

Quick Take

• Marques Mendes says he will finish first on Sunday despite surveys showing him near 5th place.

• Latest polls put André Ventura, António José Seguro and João Cotrim Figueiredo in a tight cluster around 21-23%.

• Mendes, backed by the centre-right PSD–CDS alliance, hopes undecided voters will coalesce around his candidacy in the final 72 hours.

• If no contender clears 50%, a runoff on 8 February would pit the two best-placed names against each other.

• Political scientists warn that "second-round chemistry" could prove more decisive than raw first-round totals.

A Bid to Defy the Numbers

Standing before supporters in Porto, the former líder of the Social Democratic Party declared he was "absolutely persuaded" that "a silent majority" would propel him to the top of the vote tally. The confidence belies the most recent University Católica/RTP–Antena 1–Público survey, which gives him 15%—well behind the frontrunners. Critics see bravado; his team frames it as momentum that traditional polling cannot capture.

What the Surveys Really Say

Three national tracking studies released this week paint a similar picture:

• Ventura: 22 %±2

• Seguro: 22 %±2

• Cotrim Figueiredo: 19 %±2.5

• Gouveia e Melo: 16 %±2

• Marques Mendes: 15 %±2Analysts at the Observador’s "Radar das Sondagens" note that Mendes has slipped nearly 2 points since December, while Ventura added roughly the same amount—suggesting right-wing voters are gravitating toward the Chega leader. A separate model run by political-science professor Paula Espírito-Santo still assigns Mendes a 41% probability of ultimately winning the presidency, but only if he reaches the runoff.

Why Mendes Still Sees a Path

The campaign points to three levers:

PSD grassroots machine: local party branches in 308 municipalities can mobilise late-deciding voters better than insurgent campaigns.

Moderate brand: post-Marcelo Portugal has often rewarded centrist tones in the second round; Mendes bets anti-Ventura and anti-Seguro voters will rally behind him.

Diaspora weight: roughly 1 M registered abroad traditionally lean centre-right and could add several percentage points."Polls don’t measure transfers once fear of extremes kicks in," a senior strategist argued, echoing the belief that past coalition voters will "come home" when faced with a binary choice.

Rival Camps Draw Their Own Red Lines

Ventura pitches a hard-line agenda on migration and security, branding Mendes "the system’s echo." Seguro focuses on bread-and-butter economics, painting himself as the heir to Sampaio’s social-democratic values. Meanwhile, retired admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo rides his pandemic-era popularity, and Cotrim Figueiredo courts liberals with promises of a slimmed-down state. The field’s fragmentation means that even a 25% share could carry the first round—a far cry from Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s 60% landslide in 2021.

Key Dates and Constitutional Stakes

Portugal’s president wields a modest yet pivotal toolkit: veto power, dissolution of parliament, and the ability to appoint the prime minister. The Constituição mandates that if no candidate tops 50% on 18 January, a second ballot occurs three weeks later. Overseas votes are counted after election night, often tweaking margins by up to half a percentage point.

Reading Between the Numbers

Luísa Meireles, a veteran commentator on Renascença, argues that "electoral liquefaction"—rapid opinion shifts in the final 48 hours—has grown since 2019. Social-media analysis by Llorente & Cuenca places Mendes last among the six main hopefuls for digital traction, but high volumes do not always translate into ballots, she cautions. A SigmaDos focus group this week found that "trustworthiness" and "ability to work with any prime minister" now outrank ideological proximity for undecided voters—an opening Mendes believes favours him.

What to Watch Next

• Tonight’s RTP debate, the final confrontation before the official campaign blackout at midnight, could be critical for momentum.

• Regional rallies: Mendes is scheduled for Viseu, Faro and Funchal, areas where PSD may flip large first-round numbers.

• Turnout trendlines: the National Election Commission expects participation to surpass 2021’s record-low 39%, but rain in the north could suppress day-of voting.

The Bottom Line

Luís Marques Mendes is wagering that traditional party networks, a centrist persona and late-breaking undecideds will overturn unfavourable polling. Whether that belief reflects quiet currents or wishful thinking will become clear when the last ballot is counted—and Portugal discovers which two names will dominate the February showdown.