Lisbon’s Centre-Right Pact Courts Expats With ‘Moderate’ Banner

Visitors who have arrived in Lisbon over the past four years have often been surprised to learn that the city’s mayor, Carlos Moedas, is a former European Commissioner running a coalition that stretches from mainstream conservatives to libertarians—and yet he insists it is entirely populated by moderates. That claim is being tested again as the Por ti, Lisboa platform heads into the 12 October local elections with a freshly signed pact linking the centre-right PSD, the Christian-democratic CDS-PP, and the pro-market Iniciativa Liberal (IL). For foreign residents, the agreement could shape everything from building permits in Alcântara to late-night policing in Bairro Alto.

A centre-right bloc trying to look anything but extreme

Moedas’s pitch to voters and, by extension, the international community in Lisbon is deceptively simple: choose practical governance over ideological adventures. His campaign headquarters repeats the phrase “não há radicais” like a mantra, hoping to distance the coalition from Chega on the far right and from an equally combative alliance of Socialists, Livre, BE, and PAN on the left. Insider polling leaked last week shows that roughly 1 in 4 expat voters—people eligible to vote because they hold EU passports—could prove decisive in a race that opinion surveys describe as a dead heat.The language of moderation also plays well with the city’s growing tech and tourism sectors. Executives at foreign firms often lobby City Hall for predictable regulation, and Moedas tells them his platform represents “assertive moderation,” a phrase borrowed from his 2021 victory speech. The contrasting label he reserves for the left is “radicalismo do contra,” loosely, opposition for opposition’s sake.

Inside the deal: how posts and parishes were carved up

The memorandum signed on 23 July reveals a meticulous division of spoils. Nine winnable spots on the city council list will now be shared: the PSD takes three just behind the mayor, while CDS-PP and IL secure two each. That allocation forced CDS to surrender one seat it held in 2021, proof of IL’s newfound bargaining power. Lower down the ballot, the Assembleia Municipal follows a similar formula; PSD will nominate the speaker, IL claims the runner-up position, and CDS slots in fourth.Where the agreement matters most for day-to-day life is at the parish, or freguesia, level. Out of 24 Lisbon juntas, the PSD will head fifteen, CDS six, and IL three—namely Campolide, Olivais and the increasingly international Alcântara. Property managers eyeing short-term-rental licences in those districts should note that IL has vowed to “streamline permitting” and resist new caps on Alojamento Local.

Why “no radicals” is more than a slogan

Chega’s absence from the pact is deliberate. Both Moedas and national PSD leader Luís Montenegro have ruled out governing with the far right, even as some party figures flirt with issue-by-issue cooperation in Parliament. By repeating that the municipal slate is free of extremists, Moedas hopes to reassure centrist Portuguese and the roughly 80,000 foreign taxpayers now registered in Lisbon. Diplomats and multinational HR departments quietly confirm that any hint of ultra-nationalism would complicate relocations.The left calls the branding cynical. Alexandra Leitão—fronting a PS-backed list reinforced by Livre, Bloco de Esquerda and PAN—has labelled Moedas’s record on housing “radical inaction.” The mayor counters with numbers: 2,600 new public homes delivered and 1,200 rent-support grants since 2021, figures City Hall’s budget office backs up. Critics retort that half those units remain empty pending infrastructure work.

Reactions from the opposition and why expats should care

Socialists insist the coalition’s tax-cut rhetoric masks an agenda that will under-fund social programmes. The Bloco accuses Moedas of treating the Israel–Palestine conflict like a proxy culture war after he likened far-left and far-right extremes. Meanwhile the Communist Party alleges the mayor has steered public-relations contracts toward media outlets favourable to him.For non-Portuguese residents, these skirmishes translate into concrete questions: Will property taxes fall for newly arrived digital nomads, as IL demands? Could stricter rent controls resurface if the left prevails? And will the promised “new security plan”—more officers and CCTV downtown—materialise, or be rewritten by a different majority?

What happens next—and how it affects daily life

Candidate lists close in late August, campaign posters hit streets in September, and the vote itself lands on a Saturday, 12 October. If Moedas is re-elected with a stable council majority, observers expect him to fast-track metro extensions to the western waterfront, keep tourist taxes flat at €2 a night, and maintain the current freeze on new AL licences only in the historic centre. Should the left assemble enough seats to block his budget, Lisbon could face the kind of fiscal gridlock that stalled urban-planning approvals in 2016.Expats who own property or operate businesses would be wise to watch the debates—streamed live on the municipal website—and quiz local candidates in their freguesias. While Portugal’s national politics often grab headlines abroad, city hall decisions on housing permits, traffic-calming zones and kindergarten slots will shape everyday life far more directly.The bottom line: Lisbon’s dominant centre-right still sees moderation as its strongest brand, and for now that brand excludes any formal alliance with Chega. Whether voters—Portuguese and foreign alike—reward the promise of “assertive, anti-radical” governance will determine how welcoming the capital feels to newcomers in the years ahead.