Lisbon Could Lose Budget Flights as Ryanair Flees High-Fee Airports

Holiday-makers flying out of Portugal this winter should not notice immediate disruption, yet a quieter shake-up is unfolding across the continent. Ryanair, Europe’s self-styled low-fare behemoth, is quietly retreating from airports where fees have spiralled, redeploying aircraft to cheaper bases in Eastern and Southern Europe and North Africa. The decision exposes a wider tug-of-war between regulators raising charges to fund sustainability projects and airlines that rely on razor-thin margins.

A business model colliding with rising charges

Ryanair’s long-running pledge is simple: keep fares low by operating from airports willing to discount landing, handling and security costs. Over the past year that arithmetic has been upended. Paris lifted its taxe de solidarité by 182 %, Berlin raised the Luftverkehrsabgabe by 24 %, and Spain’s Aena confirmed a 6.5 % hike in per-passenger charges for 2026. Michael O’Leary’s response was equally blunt. The airline will ground or relocate almost 4 M seats this winter, declaring it “commercially impossible” to sell €9 tickets while paying double-digit surcharges at the gate.

Airports that lose — and those that gain — capacity

The retreat is most visible in regional France. Bergerac, Brive and Strasbourg will see every Ryanair flight disappear by late October, a loss of 750 000 seats that local chambers of commerce fear could wipe out thousands of tourism-linked jobs. Germany follows closely: Berlin, Hamburg and Cologne drop off the map, erasing roughly 800 000 seats. Spain, once Ryanair’s crown jewel, faces a 2 M-seat cut split between summer 2025 and winter 2025-2026, including the closure of bases at Jerez and Valladolid. Meanwhile, capacity is being funnelled to airports such as Katowice, Tirana, Marrakech and Bari, where total fees per departing passenger remain under €7.

Why the shake-up matters on this side of the Iberian border

For Portuguese travellers the immediate schedule looks stable. In September O’Leary personally unveiled new winter links from Porto, Faro and Funchal, pointedly sidelining Lisbon where he has long railed against slot scarcity and delays in deciding between Montijo or Alcochete for the next airport. Industry analysts, however, warn that Portugal is not immune. ANA-Vinci charges at Humberto Delgado sit just below the Spanish average; any post-privatisation tariff increase could push Ryanair to divert additional aircraft to Porto or even Seville, leaving Lisbon with fewer low-cost options and higher fares.

The bigger culprit: a global aircraft drought

Landing fees are only half the equation. The Irish carrier is also wrestling with a severe shortage of narrow-body jets. Boeing’s delivery delays on the 737 MAX family forced Ryanair to plan for 10-20 new aircraft this fiscal year instead of the 30 originally promised. Airbus customers are fighting similar backlogs. With limited metal to deploy, airlines naturally concentrate on routes that clear the highest yield after airport charges — another strike against high-cost hubs. A surprise announcement in August that Boeing will advance 25 aircraft into Ryanair’s 2025 schedule may ease the crunch, but insiders say up to 1 in 5 jets could still be deferred if U.S. import tariffs rise.

Political crossfire over green levies and tourism

European governments defend the surcharges as necessary to fund carbon-reduction schemes, rail connections and noise mitigation. France’s transport minister dismissed Ryanair’s withdrawal as “nothing more than market repositioning.” Local officials in Bergerac counter that the low-cost carrier accounted for 70 % of their passenger throughput and that losing it risks shutting the terminal entirely. Similar debates are erupting in Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn, where hikes of up to 70 % in airport fees coincide with Ryanair capacity cuts of 20-40 %. The clash highlights a policy dilemma familiar to Portugal: how to reconcile green aviation taxes with the economic lifeline that affordable air links provide to peripheral regions.

What to watch in 2026 and beyond

Unless regulators blink, Ryanair’s network will continue tilting toward countries that keep costs down. Management has flagged Italy (outside Rome), Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden, Albania and Morocco as primary growth markets through 2027. For Portuguese holidaymakers that could translate into more direct options to secondary Italian or North African cities — but also the risk that any uptick in ANA fees will prompt Ryanair to shift aircraft eastward. In the meantime, travellers should brace for modestly higher fares at Europe’s marquee airports and keep an eye on the ongoing standoff over Lisbon’s long-awaited expansion, a decision that could ultimately dictate where the next wave of low-cost flights lands.