How Google’s EU AI Probe Could Boost Portuguese Creators—and Threaten Exports

The European Union has just turned the spotlight on Google’s artificial-intelligence machinery, opening a formal antitrust probe that could reshape who owns — and who profits from — the digital raw material of the AI age. For Portuguese publishers, YouTubers and start-ups, the case is more than a Brussels-versus-Silicon-Valley skirmish: it may decide how, and whether, they are paid when their work teaches the algorithms that power chatbots and search results.

What Portuguese readers need to know right now

• Lisbon-based newsrooms and independent creators could gain new bargaining power if the EU forces Google to license content on fair terms.

• Fines can climb to 10 % of Alphabet’s global revenue — a threat large enough to nudge behavioral change.

• Washington is already hinting at trade retaliation, raising the specter of tariff turbulence that might spill over into Portuguese exports.

Brussels zeroes in on Google’s data diet

Regulators in the Berlaymont headquarters say they have grown uneasy with the scale at which Google funnels web articles, photos and especially YouTube videos into its training pipelines. Investigators will test two core suspicions: that the company grants itself privileged access to user-generated video while blocking rivals, and that it sets “take-it-or-leave-it” terms for European publishers desperate for search traffic. In plain language, the Commission wants to know whether the same platform that dominates discovery is also writing the rulebook for generative AI — a combination that could squeeze competitors before they ever reach the starting block.

Why it matters for Portugal’s creative sector

Portugal’s digital economy is small by U.S. standards yet unusually dependent on visibility inside Google’s ecosystem. According to the Associação Portuguesa de Imprensa, more than 60 % of referral traffic to domestic news sites arrives through Google Search. If Brussels succeeds in forcing a revenue-sharing model, local outlets from Porto to Faro could see a badly needed new income stream. Content creators on YouTube — a community that ranges from tech reviewer “Nuno Agonia” to language tutor “Portuguese With Carla” — are watching just as closely. Many have complained that AI-generated summaries siphon views by answering user queries without ever sending clicks to the original video.

Capitol Hill pushes back — and the tariff threat returns

The Biden administration’s successor has revived Donald Trump’s hard-line stance on European digital rules. Within hours of the probe’s announcement, Vice-President J.D. Vance blasted what he called an “innovation tax on the American people,” while key senators floated the idea of maintaining 50 % steel and aluminium tariffs until Brussels “comes to its senses.” Such rhetoric matters for Portugal’s export-oriented manufacturers — from Autoeuropa’s car plant in Palmela to cork producers in Alentejo — because a tariff exchange could quickly broaden beyond metals.

Penalties, timelines and possible settlements

Under EU competition law, Google faces a theoretical fine of up to €28 B (based on 2024 turnover). In practice, most antitrust cases end with a remedy package: data-sharing commitments, independent monitoring and, crucially, a cheque for past behavior. Officials insist there is “no deadline” for the investigation, but privately concede that they want a preliminary statement of objections on the table before the Digital Markets Act enforcement ramp-up next spring.

Not the first Silicon Valley giant in Brussels’ crosshairs

Google is the headline name today, yet Brussels is running parallel dockets against Meta’s WhatsApp data-access rules and Apple’s App Store steering. The Commission points out that its approach is “nationality-neutral” — a phrase meant to deflect U.S. complaints that American firms are singled out. Still, for mainland policymakers the string of cases is creating something rare in tech politics: unity across Europe’s north-south divide, with Portugal lining up alongside France and Germany in favor of tougher oversight.

The hidden numbers powering AI — and why regulators care

Alphabet engineers rarely reveal exact figures, but leaked presentations indicate their Gemini model ingests billions of text excerpts, millions of images and tens of millions of video clips. Internal telemetry seen by analysts suggests Gemini processes roughly 500 million tokens per second. Brussels argues that such scale, combined with Google’s dominance in search, creates a feedback loop: more user data improves AI; better AI keeps users; and the cycle repeats. Rivals complain they cannot replicate the feat because YouTube’s terms forbid bulk scraping, while Google itself may be using the same archive without paying creators a cent.

Where do we go from here?

Google has 10 weeks to send a legal defence, after which the Commission will decide whether to escalate. Meanwhile, negotiators in Lisbon are lining up talking points: fair remuneration, opt-out mechanisms and transparency over training data have emerged as Portugal’s red lines. Whatever the final ruling, the case is likely to define how much of Europe’s cultural output becomes free fuel for Silicon Valley’s next algorithm — and how much of that value returns to the people who created it.