Guinea-Bissau Junta Sets 6 Dec 2026 Elections, Raising Alarm in Lisbon

The generals who seized power in Guinea-Bissau last November have finally put a clock on their promise to restore civilian rule, naming 6 December 2026 for simultaneous presidential and legislative elections. The announcement calms none of the doubts swirling in Bissau—and in Lisbon—about whether ballot boxes can be ready, whether opposition parties will be allowed to campaign, and whether the result will carry any credibility in a country where coups routinely rewrite the rule-book.

At a Glance

• Date fixed: elections scheduled for 6 December 2026 by decree n.º 02/2026.

• Military still in charge: Major-General Horta Inta-A chairs the transitional presidency created after the 26 November 2025 coup.

• Parties sidelined: activities of the 40+ registered parties remain suspended; key opposition figures are in jail or exile.

• Logistical hole: the Electoral Commission warns it lacks ballot boxes, servers and updated voter rolls.

• Regional pressure: CEDEAO demands a shorter, inclusive transition and threatens targeted sanctions.

• Portuguese stance: Lisbon halts military cooperation, maintains humanitarian aid and questions the junta’s new constitution.

A Calendar Written in Camouflage

Bissau’s new timeline emerged from closed-door meetings at the Palácio do Povo between the Alto Comando Militar, the interim prime minister and a hand-picked National Transition Council. No political parties were invited. By framing the poll almost a year away, the generals gain breathing space while projecting an image of "orderly return" to democracy. Critics see the opposite: a military blueprint that concentrates power in the presidency, sidelines parliament and allows the top brass to remain king-makers well into 2027.

Election Logistics: Ballot Boxes Without Ballots

Inside the burned-out headquarters of the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE), technicians are still cataloguing what was lost when soldiers stormed the premises during the coup. Missing or destroyed are hundreds of urnas, the central IT server and most of the 2025 results data. CNE president N'pabi Cabi told the junta he needs a full voter re-registration because the current roll “contains the dead, the departed and the duplicated.” The government’s 2026 budget, worth roughly €810 M, sets no visible line for this extraordinary expense. The Treasury insists national coffers will foot the bill, but past elections were only possible with foreign donors covering about 30% of costs.

Portugal’s Tightrope Walk

For Portugal, whose historical links with Guinea-Bissau translate into aid, migration and security cooperation, the coup created diplomatic whiplash. Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel labelled the junta’s fast-tracked constitution “gravely worrying” and froze all military training missions. Civil society groups in Lisbon have pressed the government to condition broader assistance on the release of PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira and other political detainees. Yet, humanitarian funding for health and education continues, reflecting what one senior diplomat called “our commitment to Bissau’s people, not its putschists.”

CEDEAO Turns Up the Heat

The Economic Community of West African States sees Guinea-Bissau as an early test of its new hard-line posture against coups. After rejecting the junta’s first transition roadmap, CEDEAO emissaries returned in January demanding a "short, inclusive, consensual" hand-over, plus immediate liberation of political prisoners. They hint at selective sanctions—visa bans and asset freezes—if December 2026 becomes a moving target or if opposition leaders remain muzzled. Neighbouring Senegal and Cabo Verde privately fear an unstable Guinea-Bissau could again become a transit hub for cocaine trafficking and armed groups.

Silenced Parties, Jailed Leaders

With party headquarters padlocked by soldiers, political debate has migrated to WhatsApp, exile radio and diaspora gatherings in Lisbon’s Martim Moniz. The once-dominant PAIGC demands its leader’s freedom and restoration of the 1993 constitution, calling the junta’s charter “a throw-away pamphlet.” Smaller formations such as MADEM-G15 and PRS issue cautious statements, aware that outspoken critics have been detained on charges of “undermining state security.” Human-rights monitors document arrests of journalists, evening curfews and the use of military courts for civilian cases—signs that the playing field for December 2026 is already tilted.

What to Watch From Portugal

Security of Lusophone businesses: Several Portuguese firms in telecoms and construction operate in Bissau under temporary military licences. Their contracts may hinge on the election outcome.

Migration flows: Previous crises prompted spikes in arrivals at Lisbon airport. A messy campaign or disputed vote could trigger another surge in asylum requests.

Regional spill-over: Instability in Guinea-Bissau often ripples into the Guinea-Senegal-Gambia corridor, a key trade route for Portuguese exporters.

Diplomats in both Bissau and Lisbon admit privately that a date alone does not equal a roadmap. Between now and 6 December 2026, the junta must unlock political space, re-equip the CNE and rebuild trust with neighbours. Without those steps, the ballot risks becoming just another page in the country’s long ledger of interrupted democracies—with consequences that will not stop at the Geba River or the Tagus.