Forecasts Torn Up: Lisbon’s Second Airport Faces New Delay
Lisbon’s long-debated second airport project has run into a fresh hurdle: the government has told ANA – Aeroportos de Portugal that its current demand models are no longer credible and must be overhauled. Officials argue that passenger numbers rebounded far faster than the operator predicted, raising fears that the new hub could open over- or under-sized, drain public coffers, or stumble at the environmental-licensing stage if the figures prove off the mark.
Forecasts that aged overnight
A handful of seasons changed everything. When the original studies were filed, airlines were still licking their wounds from lockdown and Portugal’s tourism board expected a slow climb back to the 2019 record. Instead, a confluence of remote-work migrants, a boom in digital-nomad visas, post-pandemic revenge travel, and the meteoric rise of low-cost carriers pushed Lisbon’s main gateway past 34 M passengers in 2024, almost 20 % above the most optimistic scenario in ANA’s dossier. TAP’s own restructuring plan, a new Ryanair maintenance base and extra Transatlantic frequencies by United and Delta only tightened the squeeze on Humberto Delgado Airport’s single runway.
With IATA projecting Southern Europe to be the continent’s fastest-growing aviation market for the rest of the decade, Lisbon risks repeating the capacity crunch that plagued it in the 2010s. Montijo, the option championed by ANA and its French parent Vinci, was dimensioned for roughly 50 movements an hour. But recent traffic counts suggest peak demand could exceed that figure before the concrete has even cured, reviving arguments for the more spacious Alcochete alternative or a phased hybrid solution.
What the government actually ordered
In a terse despacho delivered to ANA’s headquarters this week, the Infrastructure Ministry demanded an updated traffic study, a fresh cost-benefit analysis, and a revised noise contour map within 90 days. Without those documents, the ministry warned, no environmental licence will be granted and no European-wide tender for construction services may be launched. Sources close to the minister say the aim is not to paralyse the project but to avoid a scenario in which ‘the country builds an airport for yesterday while paying interest rates of tomorrow’.
Legal analysts note that Lisbon’s concession contract allows the government to impose new technical requirements when ‘material changes’ in demand occur. Still, tapping that clause could trigger compensation talks with Vinci, potentially raising the final price tag or extending the concession by additional years. For now, ANA has responded publicly only with a one-line statement acknowledging receipt of the order and pledging ‘full technical cooperation’.
Why it matters for travellers — and Portugal’s economy
Crowded terminals translate into longer queues, slot bottlenecks and higher fares. Airlines such as easyJet, which recently scrapped plans to base a seventh aircraft in Lisbon, say uncertainty around the new hub’s opening date already distorts route planning. On the macro front, every million passengers that fail to materialise is estimated by Turismo de Portugal to shave €660 M off tourism-related GDP, a figure that eclipses the annual budget of several mid-sized municipalities.
Conversely, building ahead of demand could saddle taxpayers with an under-used facility, echoing Spain’s infamous Ciudad Real ghost airport. Economists remind policymakers that Portugal’s public-debt ratio still hovers near 100 % of GDP, leaving little room for mis-calculation. A robust forecast, they argue, is the cheapest insurance policy the country can buy right now.
The next checkpoints
Once ANA files its revised models, the National Civil Aviation Authority (ANAC) will run a technical peer review, after which the dossier goes to the Environment Agency for a new EIA. Only then can Brussels decide whether the project qualifies for Connecting Europe Facility co-financing, a pot that covered 15 % of major EU aviation projects over the past decade.
Industry insiders whisper that a realistic timeline now pushes the groundbreaking into late 2027, with first flights no earlier than 2030. While that may disappoint frequent flyers, officials insist the delay is preferable to launching a mega-project on shaky numbers.
For residents along the Tagus Estuary — an ecological sanctuary vital to migratory birds — a rebooted demand forecast may also reopen the conversation about which bank of the river is the lesser evil. Environmental NGOs, marginalised in recent hearings, say the government’s move proves their warnings were not alarmism but data-driven caution.
Whatever site is ultimately chosen, one fact is no longer up for debate: Portugal’s sky-high popularity has changed the calculus, and only a traffic model fit for the new reality will keep the country’s aviation ambitions from stalling.