Families Rethink Christmas Feast as Cod and Turkey Prices Soar in Portugal

Portuguese households are bracing for a noticeably pricier Christmas dinner as the two proteins that define the season—salted cod and turkey—have climbed well above last year’s levels. While incomes are rising modestly, price tags at the fish counter and butcher’s aisle are moving faster, forcing families to rethink long-held traditions or stretch their budgets more than they would like.

Sticker Shock at the Fish Counter

The country’s favourite holiday fish, bacalhau, is now selling at an average of €16.87 per kilogram, roughly 10% higher than in January. Industry data collected by the Norwegian Seafood Council show that early December marked the highest quotation of the year. Portugal’s love affair with cod has not cooled—about one-third of annual consumption still concentrates around Christmas—but shoppers are being nudged toward smaller pieces or alternative cuts to keep bills in check.

Poultry Prices Take Flight

Turkey, marketed as the more affordable centrepiece, has also edged up. A perna de peru costs €5.69/kg, an 11.5% rise since January, while the leaner turkey steak now hovers near €9.46/kg after a jump of more than 15%. Feed costs, largely denominated in dollars, explain much of the increase, according to producers who say maize and soybean prices made up 60-70% of total expenses in 2025.

What Is Pushing Costs Higher?

Several forces are converging:

• Reduced North-Atlantic fishing quotas for 2025 are squeezing cod supplies, with further cuts signalled for 2026.

• Energy and freight remain dear, adding to logistics outlays for both frozen fish and chilled poultry.

• Exchange-rate swings inflated the bill for imported raw materials, particularly animal feed and packaging.

• A brief uptick in global demand after pandemic declines has tightened stocks just as the festive season peaks.

Government Measures Offer Only Partial Relief

Lisbon’s policy toolbox for 2025 does not target Christmas food directly, yet some steps cushion the blow: an IRS bracket update of 4.62%, a minimum-wage lift to €870, and a modest bump in smaller pensions. A handful of municipalities have gone further; Ílhavo, for instance, is distributing festive hampers with cod, olive oil and staple goods to schoolchildren on social assistance. Consumer advocates praise the gesture but argue that nationwide action—such as a temporary VAT cut on key seasonal foods—would have far wider reach.

How Families Are Adapting

Shoppers are proving resourceful. According to DECO PROteste, nearly every household is employing at least one of the tactics below:

Scaling down portions of cod and balancing plates with cheaper sides like legumes or greens.

Switching recipes—bolinhos de bacalhau, pies or casseroles stretch a small fillet across several servings.

Hunting promotions online, using supermarket price comparators to cherry-pick the best deals.

Buying early and freezing, locking in November prices before the mid-December surge.

Zero-waste cooking, with 96% of respondents claiming they repurpose leftovers into soups or brunch dishes.

Outlook: The 2026 Horizon

Neither the Norwegian fleet nor local fish processors expect cod shortages next year, yet both warn that quota reductions already approved for the Barents Sea will likely feed through to higher import prices. Poultry farmers, meanwhile, see no respite in feed markets, hinting that current turkey rates could become the new normal. In other words, 2025 may be remembered as the year festive food inflation went mainstream—and 2026 is unlikely to reverse the trend.

In the meantime, Portuguese consumers appear determined to keep their Christmas tables full, even if that means tweaking recipes, stretching ingredients or sharing costs among more relatives. Traditions endure; they just cost a little more with each passing December.