Eurozone’s 2025 Trade Surplus Keeps Mortgages Stable, Boosts Portuguese Exports

The Eurozone has ended 2025 with a trade surplus of €164.6 B, a cushion that should keep the euro relatively calm and provide a modest back-stop for interest rates—developments that translate into steadier mortgage costs and export orders for families and businesses in Portugal.

Why This Matters

• Stable euro, tamer prices – A solid current-account position limits wild currency swings that could push up imported energy and food bills in Portugal.

• Export-friendly environment – Portuguese firms in textiles, wine and machinery still sell 2⁄3 of their goods to the single market; a Eurozone surplus signals continuing demand.

• Hints for the ECB’s next move – Healthy external balances reduce pressure on the European Central Bank to hike rates aggressively.

• Sector clues for investors – Chemicals, pharma and high-tech equipment led the charge; Lisbon-based funds tracking these industries may outperform.

A Surplus That Slipped, Not Sank

The 2025 tally is €4.3 B below 2024’s record, yet miles ahead of the brief €228 B deficit logged during the energy-price storm of 2022. December’s figure, a €12.6 B surplus, underscores the slowdown: imports grew 4.2 % year-on-year, outrunning the 3.4 % rise in exports. Eurostat’s seasonally adjusted data paint the same picture—positive, but thinning.

Monthly gyrations were noticeable. October’s jump to €18.4 B gave way to €9.9 B in November before the modest year-end rebound. Analysts at Banco de Portugal note that the volatility largely mirrors energy prices and the timing of ship deliveries rather than a structural shift.

Engines of Growth: From Chemicals to Semiconductors

The lion’s share of 2025 export momentum came from chemicals, pharmaceuticals and specialised chip-making machinery. These niches posted double-digit value gains, offsetting patchier performances in traditional heavyweights like autos and generic machinery. For Portuguese subcontractors supplying active pharmaceutical ingredients or precision moulds, the uptick means fuller order books and, potentially, higher margins.

Food exports also punched above their weight in early 2025 thanks to pricier coffee, cocoa and dairy contracts. That helped agri-food regions such as Trás-os-Montes and Alentejo, where producers saw more favourable selling prices in intra-EU trade.

Gathering Headwinds

Still, cracks are visible. New U.S. tariffs shaved 12.6 % off Eurozone shipments across the Atlantic, while the trade gap with China widened to €26.8 B in December. Within the bloc, machines and vehicles lost steam as German and French manufacturers trimmed orders. A smaller surplus in chemicals (down from €20.2 B to €16.5 B) hints that even star performers are not immune to pricing pressures and regulatory uncertainty.

What This Means for Residents

Portugal’s open economy feels Eurozone trade swings quickly. Here’s how the 2025 numbers filter down:

Borrowing costs – A firm Eurozone external position supports the euro and curbs imported inflation. The Portugal Treasury can therefore finance itself slightly more cheaply, easing upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Job security in export hubs – Factories in Aveiro, Braga and Setúbal feeding the Eurozone’s chemical and pharma supply chains enjoy a more predictable demand horizon. Hiring freezes, not layoffs, are the base-case scenario.

Consumer prices – A smaller energy deficit keeps wholesale gas and electricity contracts below 2022 peaks. Households should avoid another spike in utility bills.

Investment cues – Sectors that drove the surplus—pharma, speciality chemicals, semiconductor equipment—offer clearer growth narratives for Portuguese venture funds and pension schemes.

2026 Outlook: Clouds but No Storm—Yet

Brussels has trimmed its 2026 GDP call to 1.2 %, warning that trade tensions could sap export momentum. The European Central Bank echoes that concern, noting “trade diversion” toward cheaper Asian supply chains. The IMF flags lingering high energy costs and a strong euro as twin drags on manufacturing.

For Portugal, economists at NOVA SBE see domestic demand—not exports—carrying the growth load next year. Still, as long as the Eurozone keeps the balance in the black, Lisbon can rely on a currency zone that funds itself, tampers inflation and buys Portuguese goods. The surplus may be slimmer, but it remains a useful shock absorber for a country that ships nearly 70 % of its exports to fellow Euro members.