Europe's Fading Power: Why Portugal's Future Depends on Continental Competitiveness

Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić has drawn a stark historical parallel between contemporary Europe and the Western Roman Empire in its final years, warning that the continent's sense of moral superiority blinds it to gathering threats along its borders. Speaking at the World Policy Conference organized by the French Institute of International Relations near Paris, Vučić argued that Europe's failure to recognize its declining position mirrors the imperial arrogance that preceded Rome's collapse.

Why This Matters

• Strategic positioning: Serbia remains militarily neutral while pursuing EU membership, maintaining partnerships with NATO, China, and Russia—a balancing act increasingly difficult in a polarized world.

• Economic competition: Europe lags behind the US and China in AI investment, raising questions about the continent's long-term competitiveness.

• Demographic crisis: The EU faces significant demographic challenges with fertility rates declining across the continent.

The Roman Empire Analogy

The Serbian president stopped short of predicting Europe's collapse—"That will never happen," he stated—but emphasized that the continent is "losing many important battles" while clinging to outdated assumptions about its global standing. His critique centers on what he perceives as Europe's inflated self-image: "We Europeans all believe, wrongly, that we have a kind of moral and democratic superiority over others, which is completely false."

This rhetoric from a leader whose country has faced EU pressure over democratic backsliding and maintaining ties with Russia carries particular irony. Yet Vučić's broader argument resonates with concerns voiced by Western European leaders themselves, including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who have warned about Europe becoming a "technological vassal" to the US and China.

Technology and Competitiveness

Vučić identified three critical fronts where Europe is falling behind: demographic challenges, emerging technologies, and defense capabilities. On technology and AI development, his assessment aligns with widespread European concerns about the continent's structural disadvantages in attracting innovation investment.

European policymakers and business leaders have raised concerns about regulatory frameworks that may hinder competitive development. The regulatory burden is increasingly cited by companies as a challenge when determining investment priorities across different continents. The European Commission has launched initiatives in 2025 focused on computing infrastructure, data access, and talent development to address these competitiveness gaps, signaling recognition of the challenge Vučić highlighted.

Whether these efforts prove sufficient remains an open question as American and Chinese companies continue rapid iteration cycles that European firms struggle to match.

Demographics and Europe's Future

Europe faces significant demographic pressures that concern policymakers across the continent. Fertility rates in the EU average below replacement levels, and rural depopulation is accelerating as young people migrate to urban centers, leaving entire regions struggling with aging demographics and economic stagnation.

This demographic shift places immense pressure on pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, and the working-age population needed to sustain economic output. The proportion of Europeans over age 65 is projected to increase significantly over the coming decades.

What This Means for Portugal Residents

For those living in Portugal, these continental trends manifest in specific ways. The country faces its own demographic pressures, with aging coastal populations and rural interior regions experiencing steady depopulation. Economic competitiveness concerns affect Portugal's ability to attract and retain tech talent, particularly in emerging fields like AI and robotics.

Portugal's position within the EU means that Brussels' regulatory approach to technology directly shapes the business environment for Portuguese companies and foreign investors. The tension between protecting citizen rights through regulation and maintaining competitive dynamism plays out in Portuguese tech hubs like Lisbon and Porto, where startups navigate complex frameworks affecting innovation capacity.

The migration and asylum policies being tightened across the EU also affect Portugal, which has seen increased migration pressure and debate over integration strategies. European defense capacity remains a live question for Portugal as well, particularly as threats evolve. Portugal's defense spending and NATO membership place it squarely within the Western alliance structure, yet European strategic autonomy remains a broader continental debate.

The Path Forward

When asked what Europe can accomplish over the coming 20 years, Vučić offered a pessimistic assessment: "I think not very much." This mirrors growing concern among European policymakers that the continent risks falling behind in key technology sectors and faces structural economic headwinds from demographic decline.

European leaders acknowledge many of the same challenges the Serbian president highlighted—competitiveness, demographic pressures, and the need to strengthen European autonomy. The question remains whether the continent can perceive and address these vulnerabilities before momentum becomes difficult to reverse.

For Portuguese residents, the broader European trajectory directly impacts economic opportunity, regulatory environment, and security posture. The stakes extend beyond abstract geopolitical commentary to tangible questions about competitiveness, innovation capacity, and the continent's ability to chart an independent course in an increasingly multipolar world.