Council of State Convenes in Belém on 9 January for Ukraine Briefing and Presidential Preview

An unexpectedly weighty political rendez-vous is coming to Belém next month. On 9 January, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will gather the Council of State for the first — and almost certainly the last — time before voters choose his successor. Although the meeting is formally dedicated to the war in Ukraine, it doubles as a dress rehearsal for Portugal’s post-Marcelo era and a stress test of the country’s still unfinished parliamentary landscape.

Why this matters for households from Braga to Faro

• Fresh legislature, old advisers: the newly elected Assembly has not yet named its five representatives, leaving the Council with a line-up chosen in 2024.

• Campaign backdrop: the session lands nine days before the presidential election and just eight weeks before Marcelo’s term ends.

• Geopolitical urgency: heads of state across the EU are recalibrating support for Kyiv in 2026; Lisbon’s stance will be signalled here first.

A meeting wrapped inside two ticking clocks

In normal times a Council of State summons is publicised, observed and forgotten. This one is different. By convening at 15:00 inside the Palácio de Belém, advisers will sit under the shadow of two calendars. The first belongs to the presidential race: Luís Marques Mendes, one of Marcelo’s own appointees, is on the ballot and will be forced to juggle campaigning with counselling the incumbent. The second belongs to the President himself: on 9 March, little more than 60 days after the meeting, Rebelo de Sousa hands the keys to his successor.

The confluence means every statement — and even every silence — will be read for electoral intent. Constitutional scholars point out that nothing prohibits an outgoing head of state from seeking advice during a campaign period; even so, the optics are delicate. "Any recommendation the Council makes could be interpreted as official guidance to the next President," notes constitutional expert Ana Rita Silva, stressing that advice remains non-binding yet politically potent.

Who actually has a seat at the long oval table?

Until the new parliament completes its vote, the 2019-2024 cohort holds over. Among those still in place are Carlos Moedas (PSD), Pedro Nuno Santos (PS), Carlos César (PS) and André Ventura (Chega). Veteran publisher Francisco Pinto Balsemão passed away in October, leaving one chair symbolically empty. The government benches in São Bento have been criticised for the delay, but under Article 145 of the Constitution "carry-over" counsellors remain legitimate.

Insiders confirm that no substitute will be appointed before 9 January. The absence of parliament’s renewed voice feeds speculation that Marcelo sought an early gathering precisely to avoid a larger, less predictable room.

Why Ukraine still tops the Portuguese risk map

The President continues to describe the eastern front as "the most consequential theatre for Europe’s security". Lisbon’s financial support package for Kyiv in 2024 reached €126 M, and defence planners are weighing a fresh tranche of armaments. Cabinet sources say the Council will analyse:

Budgetary headroom in a decelerating economy

Coordination with NATO’s new 5-year force structure

Potential escalation scenarios for the winter offensive

Diplomats underline that a coherent message now is essential before the next European Council in February, where Portugal might be asked to raise its contribution.

A flashback through a decade of extraordinary sessions

Rebelo de Sousa’s nine-year presidency has normalised the Council as an ad-hoc crisis cabinet. Some milestone gatherings include:

• November 2023 – approval of early elections after António Costa’s resignation

• March 2025 – advice ahead of dissolving parliament when a motion of confidence failed

• October 2024 – deep dive into global markets on the eve of the State Budget

Comparatively, the coming January meeting has less domestic drama but greater international exposure. Analysts recall that the Council’s 2018 debate on post-2020 EU funding nudged Lisbon towards more aggressive cohesion-policy lobbying; a similar foreign-policy watershed is conceivable now.

What to watch once the doors close

The Council of State deliberates behind sealed doors and publishes only a short communiqué. Yet seasoned observers monitor three tell-tale signs:

– Length of deliberations: anything beyond four hours suggests disagreement.– Presence of caretaker ministers: if key cabinet members arrive, fiscal decisions may be on the table.– Timing of the post-meeting briefing: a same-day statement often signals consensus, whereas a next-morning release points to drafting quarrels.

Government bond traders and defence lobbyists alike will parse every adjective.

Key insights at a glance

• The 9 January Council is both a security briefing and an electoral overture.• Membership remains incomplete, a constitutional quirk that may tilt dynamics in Marcelo’s favour.• War in Ukraine edges out domestic files such as health spending or TAP’s privatisation.• Outcomes are advisory, but recent history shows presidents rarely deviate from the Council’s majority opinion.• For voters, the session offers an early glimpse of how the next head of state could balance foreign policy activism with domestic restraint.

Portugal’s political winter thus begins with an international conversation — one that may forecast the tone of the republic’s next decade.