Benfica Eye First Champions League Points Against a Faltering Ajax

A battered Ajax limps into its decisive European night just as Benfica, equally starved for points, scents an opening big enough to change the whole dynamic of Group F. The Dutch giants have lost three league matches in a row, conceded thirteen goals in their last four Champions League outings and now face the Lisbon side whose own continental campaign is also stalled. For Portuguese supporters, the question is no longer whether Benfica can bring something home from Amsterdam; it is whether they can seize a moment tailor-made for spoiling the hosts’ once-formidable aura.

Chill in the Johan Cruyff Arena

As the final whistle sounded in Rotterdam at the weekend, the away end erupted in whistles and ironic cheers. Ajax had just fallen 2-1 to Excelsior, a team that began the day in the relegation trapdoor. It was the third straight Eredivisie defeat, an unwanted sequence that leaves the Amsterdammers fourteen points adrift of PSV and nursing an identity crisis. Even more alarming for coach Fred Grim is the growing injury list: right-back Anton Gaaei limped off with a thigh problem and remains doubtful. The crowd reaction tells its own story. Ultras unfurled banners accusing the board of “ripping the heart out of the club”, while veteran captain Steven Bergwijn admitted on Dutch TV that “confidence is lower than I have ever felt here.”

Benfica’s silent opportunity

Roger Schmidt’s squad flew north after negotiating a routine domestic victory but, like Ajax, still sits on zero Champions League points. Yet the psychological balance could hardly be more different. Benfica have conceded fewer than half the goals Ajax have allowed in Europe and, crucially, have avoided the debilitating media storm swirling around their opponents. Club analysts note that Ángel Di María’s diagonal runs match up perfectly against a Dutch back line that has struggled with balls played into the channel between full-back and centre-half. The Portuguese champions also arrive with almost a full complement: only long-term absentee Alexander Bah remains out, giving Schmidt the luxury of near-first-choice continuity.

Where the numbers point

Strip away the emotion and a stark statistical picture emerges. Ajax average 0.25 goals scored per Champions League match this season while shipping 3.5 goals at the other end, a ratio that would derail any group-stage ambition. Benfica, hardly prolific at 0.5 goals per game, nevertheless concede fewer than two on average and have won more duels in midfield, leading Group F for ball recoveries per ninety minutes. Portuguese scouts are especially intrigued by the drop-off in Amsterdam’s pressing success. Under the golden years of Erik ten Hag, the club forced turnovers in the final third thirteen times per match; in the current campaign that figure has slipped below six, handing creative players such as João Neves extra time to pick passes.

Tactical crossroads in Amsterdam

Ajax’s interim hierarchy experimented early season with a flexible 4-3-3 that morphs into a 3-2-5 in possession, but repeated defensive lapses have forced Grim toward a more conservative 4-4-2 out of possession. The shift has confused markers and left space on the flanks, precisely where Benfica’s inverted wingers like to operate. Expect Schmidt to test that uncertainty by pushing António Silva high into midfield when Benfica build from the back, creating overloads that previously left Chelsea and Inter comfortable winners in Amsterdam. Conversely, the hosts know they must rediscover even a hint of their traditional “Futebol Total” inter-changing or risk boos turning into open revolt.

What is at stake for Portugal

For fans watching from Lisbon, Porto or Braga, this match offers more than three points. A Benfica victory would keep the Liga Portugal’s UEFA coefficient momentum intact after Porto’s run last year and Sporting’s own group-stage surprises. It would also ease the pressure swirling around Schmidt after his side’s sluggish international breaks. Perhaps most importantly, a win in Amsterdam could reopen the door to the knockout rounds despite a winless start, because several groups remain tightly bunched. That incentive alone should guarantee the travelling end sings louder than the 2 000 voices allocated.

Likely tone of the night

Amsterdam’s autumn air is damp and the local mood even colder. If Ajax make an edgy start, the whistles heard on Saturday will quickly spread. Benfica, aware of that fragility, plan to press early before dropping into compact lines designed to provoke anxiety in the home stands. The fixture therefore plays out as much in the heads of the Dutch players as on the grass. For Portuguese viewers the equation feels refreshingly straightforward: keep composure, exploit space, punish errors. Should that happen, Lisbon may wake up to the prospect of its most celebrated club finally re-igniting a Champions League season that has so far been stuck in neutral.