Approvals Hit 386,000 as Portugal Tightens Immigration Rules

Portugal’s immigration map has been redrawn in just twelve months. Residence permits jumped to 386,463 by 22 October 2025, a leap of 60 % that coincides with the sunset of the manifestação de interesse gateway and the arrival of a tougher Foreigners Act. While Lisbon tries to slow the inflow, the data show the opposite story so far, with newcomers bolstering the workforce and Social Security coffers even as backlogs and court cases pile up.

Surge in Permits Defies Policy Tightening

The headline figure—more than 386 k active residence titles—dwarfs the 236 k recorded at the same point in 2024. According to Pedro Portugal Gaspar, who now chairs the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA), the bulk of approvals still traces back to files submitted before June 2024, when the manifestação de interesse route was finally shelved. That historical pipeline explains why approvals keep climbing even though the new law demands a consular visa obtained abroad for most jobs. In short, Portugal is processing yesterday’s queue while closing tomorrow’s door.

Who Is Coming To Portugal—and Why

Brazilians continue to represent 31.4 % of all foreign residents, but 2025 saw a sharper rise among Indian, Angolan and Ukrainian nationals. Nearly every third permit is linked to contracts in hospitality, agriculture or construction, sectors where domestic labour is scarce. Student visas and family reunifications follow, while Golden Visa investment now accounts for only a sliver of approvals. The demographic profile matters: over 55 % of new residents are aged 20-44, injecting youth into an ageing society where the median age has crept above 46.

New Rules: What Changed After The Manifestação de Interesse

October’s Foreigners Act rewrote the playbook. Job-seekers’ visas are now restricted to “qualified workers”, and spouses must often wait two years before applying for family reunification. AIMA was also given up to nine months—tripling the previous deadline—to rule on files. Meanwhile, the government ordered that every application come in 100 % complete or be tossed out automatically, a bid to prevent the snowball of half-baked requests that once clogged SEF’s servers.

Can AIMA Keep Up? Promises, Backlogs And Lawsuits

Created in October 2023 to take over from the dismantled SEF, AIMA inherited roughly 400 k pending cases. It has since hired 300 extra staff, opened 30 new service desks and launched a digital renewal portal on 11 July 2025 that spares residents the notorious dawn queues outside branch offices. Even so, Lisbon’s administrative court lists 133 k complaints against the agency, ranging from missed deadlines to lost documents. Parliament earmarked €5.97 M in the 2025 budget to modernise IT systems, yet AIMA still faces a self-imposed deadline: clear every renewal by 15 October 2025 and every first-time permit by 31 December.

Economic Weight: Labour Gaps, Social Security And Demography

Economists from Nova SBE calculate that without immigration Portugal’s tax burden would need to rise to 43 % of GDP just to keep pensions afloat. Foreign workers already quadrupled their Social Security contributions since 2017, reaching almost 1 M active payers last year and leaving a €3 M surplus after benefits are deducted. Yet vulnerability persists: unemployment among foreigners touched 11.9 % in early 2025, nearly double the national average, exposing a dependence on seasonal and low-wage roles. The University of Porto warns that an inflated headcount of residents knocks GDP per capita below 80 % of the EU mean, a metric likely to resurface in Brussels when cohesion funds are recalibrated.

Looking Ahead: A More Selective Door

Lisbon’s next challenge is balance: keeping the economy open to needed talent while restoring public confidence in a system battered by delays. From January 2026 all fresh applications are slated to move fully online, with biometric appointments as the only in-person step. That shift will test whether technology can deliver the “fewer, faster, better” mantra government ministers now repeat. For would-be migrants the message is equally clear: Portugal remains welcoming, but the pathway is narrowing and the paperwork must be pristine.