Portugal is barely a day into the new calendar when Admiral-turned-presidential-contender Henrique Gouveia e Melo plants a flag in the sand: the country will only prosper if it tackles two chronic ailments—sluggish justice and wobbly internal security. His New-Year video, filmed against the grey Tagus, carried a simple message: 2026 must be a reboot year.
A New Year’s Wake-Up Call
Key talking points from the admiral’s address
• "Slow courts" that leave citizens and companies waiting years for verdicts
• "Security gaps" that, despite falling overall crime, allow violent robberies and homicides to rise
• The ongoing battles over housing, healthcare, education and Portugal’s suffocating bureaucracy
• A vow to build a "prosperous, free and cohesive" nation, provided the next head of state nudges institutions back into shape
Why the Courts Still Crawl
Portugal’s courts closed 2025 with roughly 1.15 M pending cases, according to Justice Ministry dashboards. In civil litigation, the median time to judgment hovers near 730 days, double the EU average.
Several knots slow the machine:
• Out-of-date digital platforms that force clerks to juggle PDFs and paper files.• A shortage of court reporters and peritos after three retirement-heavy years.• Endless layers of appeal—three instances for even modest sums.• Public distrust that nudges defendants to exhaust every procedural avenue.
Gouveia e Melo did not unveil a line-by-line judicial programme, but he floated three principles: reinforce secret-of-justice safeguards, spare the innocent from a "media trial" and give judges and prosecutors the resources “they keep begging for in parliamentary hearings.”
Security: Falling Numbers, Climbing Fear
The latest Relatório Anual de Segurança Interna shows a 4.6 % drop in overall crime during 2024. Yet the same dossier lists a 2.6 % rise in "violent and serious" offences.
Highlights that worry the admiral:
• Street snatch-and-grabs up 8.7 %.• Carjackings more than double.• Assaults in commercial premises up 21.7 %.• Homicides climbed past 94 cases by October 2025, already topping the previous year.
Police unions blame a leaner officer head-count and pandemic backlogs in firearms licensing. Meanwhile, the PSP recorded a 60 % jump in arrests during the first quarter of 2025—the result, they claim, of ending a year-long “work-to-rule” protest.
Political Echo Chamber
Rival candidate Luís Marques Mendes labelled the admiral’s tone “desperate,” while analysts on SIC Notícias fretted that the debate risks sliding into a "mud-slinging championship". Still, opinion polls place Gouveia e Melo in the top tier of contenders, largely thanks to his role as the Navy officer who led Portugal’s Covid-19 vaccine rollout.
Legal scholars agree on at least one point: the public image of justice is eroding. A survey by the University of Coimbra in late 2025 found 62 % of respondents convinced that “influential defendants never see jail.” That sentiment, more than any statistic, could decide the Palace race.
What Happens Next
• Gouveia e Melo officially submitted 10 000+ signatures at the Constitutional Court in December.• The first televised showdown between the leading hopefuls is set for 15 January.• Balloting takes place 2 March, with a run-off two weeks later if no one breaks 50 %.
Whether the admiral’s twin flags—faster justice and safer streets—become campaign clichés or genuine reform blueprints will depend on how convincingly he fills in the blanks over the coming weeks.
